Global advertising expenditures this year are set to top the pre-pandemic level of $634 billion reached in 2019 and grow 9.1 percent next year after a 15.6 percent jump in 2021 to $705 billion, according to the latest forecast from media agency Zenith.
“The global ad market will continue its remarkable recovery from the 2020 downturn,” which recorded a 3.9 percent drop in ad dollars, the agency said ahead of its unveiling of the estimates during Monday’s virtual UBS Global Telecom, Media & Technology Conference. A year ago, Zenith had projected a global ad rebound to the tune of 5.6 percent this year, which it then upgraded to 11.2 percent in July.
Global ad spend will expand another 5.7 percent in 2023 and 7.4 percent in 2024 to hit $873 billion “as brands continue using advertising to spur further growth in e-commerce,” the company predicted.
In the U.S., ad expenditures will jump 13.8 percent this year to $285.2 billion, when assuming constant prices, after a 2.2 percent drop in 2020, according to the Zenith model. Ad spending will expand 8.4 percent in 2022, followed by 1.8 percent the following year and 6.4 percent in 2024 to reach $364.9 billion.
Zenith also highlighted the growth spurt of social media, fueled by the rise of TikTok, Instagram and others, forecasting that it will reach $177 billion in 2022 to overtake television, which will account for $174 billion. “Social media ad spend will rise to $225 billion by 2024, when it will account for 26.5 percent of all advertising, followed by paid search at 22.5 percent and television at 21.0 percent,” the agency said.
Digital ad dollars are continuing to grow particularly fast globally. “Social media will lead the market with 14.8 percent annual growth to 2024,” while online video will improve by 14.0 percent a year, according to the Zenith prognosticators. “COVID-19 setbacks have extended the period of heightened digital transformation,” the agency stated. “The pandemic has thoroughly disrupted shopping habits. Many consumers who would prefer to browse and purchase in person are shopping online by necessity.”
“Ad spend in all regions is now well above pre-pandemic levels, and all are expected to grow healthily over the next few years,” the company also said.
Central and Eastern Europe and the Middle East/North Africa will be the fastest-growing regions going forward, predicts Zenith, “but most new ad dollars come from the U.S.,” which is expected to see a $80 billion expansion through 2024, accounting for 48 percent of total gains over the period. “The next-largest growth will come from China ($15.8 billion, or 9 percent of the total), the U.K. ($6.0 billion, or 4 percent) and Japan ($5.4 billion, or 3 percent).”